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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Saving Rate held to 4.1 Percent in July 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Personal Saving Rate held to 4.1 Percent in July 2026, released August 2026.
Latest Release
4.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Saving Rate (United States) was reported at 4.10 Percent in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.67 Percent, ranging from 2.60 Percent to 4.60 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.77 Percent, up from the prior three at 3.00 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.68 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.43 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, Personal Saving Rate has averaged 4.57 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Personal Saving Rate - US
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About Personal Saving Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US Personal Saving Rate rose to 3.00% in July, up from June’s 2.60%, marking a notable increase in household savings. July’s figure reverses two months of decline from April’s 3.00% and May’s 2.80%, signaling a shift toward more cautious consumer behavior. Market participants will watch upcoming consumption data for further clarity on spending trends. Updated 8/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.1 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.6 Percent. Before that (Jun 2026): 2.6 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.67) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1724.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 197.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 78.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 17.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 7 | 8.15 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.05 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 444.4 | 444.90 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -3 | -5.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -2 | -2.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | -7 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.684 | 0.66 | -0.24 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 6.4 | -3.5 | -3.50 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -0.9 | -2 | -1.25 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -1.8 | -3 | -0.70 | Low | |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.57 | Low | |