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US Personal Saving Rate held to 2.6 Percent in March 2026, released April 2026.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Personal Saving Rate (United States) was reported at 2.60 Percent in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.94 Percent, ranging from 2.60 Percent to 4.50 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.23 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.17 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.31 Percent). In April readings over the past 3 years, Personal Saving Rate has averaged 4.63 Percent.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Jun 11) and Core PPI MoM (Jun 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
The US Personal Saving Rate rose to 4.5% in December 2025, up from 4.0% in November, breaking a three-month flat trend. December’s 4.5% matches July’s level and aligns with the 12-month average of 4.53%, signaling renewed household caution. Bond yields edged lower on the release as markets viewed the uptick as neutral for monetary policy ahead of upcoming employment and inflation data. Updated 4/3/26
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.6 Percent. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.2 Percent. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.9 Percent.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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| Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | CPI | 335.12 | 333.02 | 335.11 | 335.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 332.407 | 333.7 | 333.84 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:30 | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.2 | 1.502 | -0.5 | -0.35 | Low | |
| 14:30 | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.186 | 3.364 | -0.5 | -0.16 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.228 | -7.974 | -4 | -5.61 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | Monthly Budget Statement | -293 | 215 | -275 | -284.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | Budget Balance | -293 | 215 | -282.9 | -287.95 | Medium | |
| Thursday, June 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Core PPI MoM | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 6 | 6.4 | 6.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225 | 219 | 219.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1780 | 1780.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.70 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Core PPI YoY | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 214.75 | 216.5 | 216.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Producer Price Index | 156.496 | 157.5 | 157.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 95 | 101 | 101.00 | Low | ||
| Friday, June 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Current Conditions | 45.8 | 46.2 | 47.65 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.80 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 44.1 | 44.3 | 44.10 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 46 | 46.25 | High | ||
| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 9 | 7.30 | Medium | ||
| 13:15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium | ||
| 13:15 | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76 | 76.05 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.55 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.35 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 36 | 36.50 | Medium | ||