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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Saving Rate held to 2.6 Percent in March 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Personal Saving Rate held to 2.6 Percent in March 2026, released April 2026.
Latest Release
2.600000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Saving Rate (United States) was reported at 2.60 Percent in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.94 Percent, ranging from 2.60 Percent to 4.50 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.23 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.17 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.31 Percent). In April readings over the past 3 years, Personal Saving Rate has averaged 4.63 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25) and Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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Personal Saving Rate - US
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About Personal Saving Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The US Personal Saving Rate rose to 4.5% in December 2025, up from 4.0% in November, breaking a three-month flat trend. December’s 4.5% matches July’s level and aligns with the 12-month average of 4.53%, signaling renewed household caution. Bond yields edged lower on the release as markets viewed the uptick as neutral for monetary policy ahead of upcoming employment and inflation data. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.6 Percent. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.2 Percent. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.9 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |