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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS UMich Consumer Sentiment held to 51.7 in July 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased August 2026
US UMich Consumer Sentiment held to 51.7 in July 2026, released August 2026.
Latest Release
51.700000
Actual
—
Consensus
51.700000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
UMich Consumer Sentiment (United States) was reported at 51.70 Index 1966:Q1=100 in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.12 Index 1966:Q1=100, ranging from 44.80 Index 1966:Q1=100 to 56.60 Index 1966:Q1=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 52.13 Index 1966:Q1=100, up from the prior three at 49.30 Index 1966:Q1=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.42 Index 1966:Q1=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.54 Index 1966:Q1=100). In August readings over the past 3 years, UMich Consumer Sentiment has averaged 59.27 Index 1966:Q1=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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UMich Consumer Sentiment - US
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About UMich Consumer Sentiment — United States
DEFINITION
US UMich Consumer Sentiment for July rose to 55.200000, rebounding sharply from June’s 49.500000 and surpassing expectations. The increase from June to July signals a notable improvement in consumer confidence after two months of decline. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data and Fed communications closely for further direction. Updated 8/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 51.7 Index 1966:Q1=100. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 55.2 Index 1966:Q1=100. Before that (Jun 2026): 49.5 Index 1966:Q1=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.40) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.952 | 3.518 | -0.4 | -1.68 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.061 | -8.557 | -0.8 | -1.93 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.675 | -2.527 | -1.2 | 0.24 | Low |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.06 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1718.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 192.25 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 77.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.18 | Medium | |