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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS UMich Consumer Sentiment held to 49.8 in March 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased April 2026
US UMich Consumer Sentiment held to 49.8 in March 2026, released April 2026.
Latest Release
49.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
49.800000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
UMich Consumer Sentiment (United States) was reported at 49.80 Index 1966:Q1=100 in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.86 Index 1966:Q1=100, ranging from 49.80 Index 1966:Q1=100 to 61.70 Index 1966:Q1=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 53.23 Index 1966:Q1=100, down from the prior three at 53.43 Index 1966:Q1=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.34 Index 1966:Q1=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.35 Index 1966:Q1=100). In April readings over the past 3 years, UMich Consumer Sentiment has averaged 59.73 Index 1966:Q1=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25) and Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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UMich Consumer Sentiment - US
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About UMich Consumer Sentiment — United States
DEFINITION
US UMich Consumer Sentiment rose to 56.6 in January from December’s 56.4, marking a modest 0.2-point increase. The index expanded slightly but remains below the 12-month average of 55.08, reflecting cautious consumer optimism amid mixed economic signals. Markets held steady as investors awaited further data to gauge the sustainability of this upward trend. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 49.8 Index 1966:Q1=100. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 53.3 Index 1966:Q1=100. Before that (Feb 2026): 56.6 Index 1966:Q1=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.73) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |