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US Real Disposable Personal Income held to 18,108.7 Billions Chained 2017 USD in February 2026, released March 2026.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Real Disposable Personal Income (United States) was reported at 18,108.70 Billions Chained 2017 USD in February 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 18,082.22 Billions Chained 2017 USD, ranging from 17,962.10 Billions Chained 2017 USD to 18,183.10 Billions Chained 2017 USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 18,136.90 Billions Chained 2017 USD, up from the prior three at 18,079.00 Billions Chained 2017 USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 53.68 Billions Chained 2017 USD) is lower than the prior year (σ 117.75 Billions Chained 2017 USD). In March readings over the past 3 years, Real Disposable Personal Income has averaged 17,918.27 Billions Chained 2017 USD.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
US Real Disposable Personal Income rose to 18203.200000 billion in January 2026, up from December’s 18082.400000 billion. This 1.1% month-over-month increase marks the highest level in over a year, extending gains since July 2025. Markets responded with higher equities and bond yields as consumer spending power strengthens amid ongoing inflation and wage growth concerns. Updated 4/3/26
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 18,108.7 Billions Chained 2017 USD. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 18,118.9 Billions Chained 2017 USD. Before that (Jan 2026): 18,183.1 Billions Chained 2017 USD.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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| Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Medium | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.80 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index | 441.4 | 441.8 | 440.20 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 0.9 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | 92.8 | 91.9 | 93.80 | High | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -2.3 | -1 | 0.85 | Medium | ||
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Services Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -2 | -1 | -4.50 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 3 | 4 | 3.00 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.9 | -8 | -10.40 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.55 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Corporate Profits QoQ | 5.7 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 212.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Spending MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Income MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 209 | 209.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1796 | 1796.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Sales QoQ | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Prices QoQ | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 2 | 2.00 | High | ||
| 14:00 | New Home Sales | 0.682 | 0.67 | 0.67 | Medium | ||