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US Real Consumer Spending fell to 1.9 in October 2025, released April 2026, down 1.6 from September's 3.5 reading. The reading missed the 2 consensus by 0.1. Real Consumer Spending has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Real Consumer Spending is now the lowest in 6 months.
across last 9 releases
Mar 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The April 2026 reading fell from the previous value of 3.5. Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.55. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL) and negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR).
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Thursday, May 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 211 | 199 | 205 | 208.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1758 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.55 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.75 | 203 | 203.5 | 203.63 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.10 | Low | |
| 14:00 | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 14:30 | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 63 | 85 | 85.00 | Low | |
| 15:30 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.85 | Medium | |
| Friday, May 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 11 | 7.5 | 11.55 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 75.7 | 75.8 | 75.95 | Low | |
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Low | |
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.75 | Low | |
| 13:15 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 0.76 | 0.4 | 0.90 | Low | |
| Monday, May 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 34 | 31.50 | Medium | ||