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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Real Consumer Spending fell to 1.9% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Real Consumer Spending fell to 1.9% in October 2025, released April 2026, down 1.6% from September's 3.5% reading. The reading missed the 2.0% consensus by 0.1%. Real Consumer Spending has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Real Consumer Spending is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
1.9
Actual
2
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: 2
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Consumer Spending (United States) was reported at 1.6% in April 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.23%, ranging from 1.4% to 3.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.63%, up from the prior three at 1.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Real Consumer Spending - US
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About Real Consumer Spending — United States
DEFINITION
Real Consumer Spending is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money spent by individuals and households on goods and services, adjusted for inflation. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence, as well as the purchasing power of consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact economic growth and inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.6 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.9 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.59) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |