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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Real Consumer Spending QoQ fell to 1.4% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Real Consumer Spending QoQ fell to 1.4% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from December's 1.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.6% consensus by 0.2%. Real Consumer Spending QoQ has now declined for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Real Consumer Spending QoQ averaged 1.83%, vs 2.95% in the prior 3-month window. Real Consumer Spending QoQ is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
1.6
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 1.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Consumer Spending QoQ (United States) was reported at 1.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.91%, ranging from 0.5% to 3.5% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.93%, down from the prior three at 2.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.85%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.02%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Real Consumer Spending QoQ has averaged 1.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Real Consumer Spending QoQ - US
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About Real Consumer Spending QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Real Consumer Spending QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending from one quarter to the next, adjusted for inflation. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence, as consumer spending is a major driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by analysts, investors, and policymakers to gauge the strength of consumer demand and potential future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.