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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Real Consumer Spending QoQ climbed to 3.8% in Q2 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Real Consumer Spending QoQ climbed to 3.8% in Q2 2026, released September 2026, up 3.1% from March's 0.7% reading. The print exceeded the 3.4% consensus by 0.4%. Real Consumer Spending QoQ has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Real Consumer Spending QoQ averaged 3.3%, vs 1.35% in the prior 3-month window. Real Consumer Spending QoQ is now the highest in 17 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.4
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.15
Actual: 3.8
Error: +0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Consumer Spending QoQ (United States) was reported at 3.8% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.4% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.53%, ranging from 0.5% to 3.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.47%, up from the prior three at 1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.09%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.28%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Real Consumer Spending QoQ has averaged 3.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Real Consumer Spending QoQ - US
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About Real Consumer Spending QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
Real Consumer Spending QoQ is a financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending from one quarter to the next, adjusted for inflation. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and consumer confidence, as consumer spending is a major driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by analysts, investors, and policymakers to gauge the strength of consumer demand and potential future economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.50) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |