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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Advance Retail Sales held to 768,553 Millions USD in May 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Advance Retail Sales held to 768,553 Millions USD in May 2026, released June 2026.
Latest Release
768553.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
768553.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Advance Retail Sales (United States) was reported at 768,553.00 Millions USD in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 745,224.00 Millions USD, ranging from 731,051.00 Millions USD to 768,553.00 Millions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 764,155.00 Millions USD, up from the prior three at 742,365.67 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 14,025.43 Millions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 8,048.91 Millions USD). In June readings over the past 3 years, Advance Retail Sales has averaged 728,011.67 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Aug 12) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Advance Retail Sales - US
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About Advance Retail Sales — United States
DEFINITION
US Advance Retail Sales for May reached 763,705 million USD, surpassing April's 757,036 million USD. This increase signals continued growth in consumer spending from April to May. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve communications for further guidance. Updated 6/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 768,553 Millions USD. Prior reading (May 2026): 766,876 Millions USD. Before that (Apr 2026): 757,036 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.73) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 97.4 | 97.5 | 98.65 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -1.20 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 4.13 | 4.05 | 4.05 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 9.072 | 2.69 | -0.5 | 4.29 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.03 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 2.479 | -0.5 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.643 | -1.58 | -2.20 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -3.473 | -1.6 | -0.09 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -346 | -346.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -361.2 | -361.20 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1800 | 1796.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 202 | 205.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.65 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.65 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.13 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.45 | Low | |
| Friday, August 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.7 | 6 | 6.80 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |