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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM fell to 0.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM fell to 0.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.4% from May's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%.
Latest Release
0.400000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
0.800000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.36%, ranging from 0% to 0.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM has averaged 0.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM - US
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About Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM is a financial indicator that measures the monthly change in retail sales, excluding the volatile categories of gasoline and automobiles. This indicator provides insight into the overall strength of consumer spending, which is a key driver of economic growth. By excluding these two categories, it offers a more accurate representation of consumer behavior and trends in the retail sector. This data is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it can indicate the health of the economy and potential shifts in consumer sentiment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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