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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM climbed to 0.4 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM climbed to 0.4 in March 2026, released April 2026, up 0.2 from February's 0.2 reading. The print exceeded the 0.2 consensus by 0.2.
Latest Release
0.400000
Actual
0.200000
Consensus
0.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Apr 2026
Predicted: 0.28
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.12
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The April 2026 reading rose from the previous value of 0.2. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.45. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bearish USD) and negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500).
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Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, May 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 211 | 199 | 205 | 208.00 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1758 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.20 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.75 | 203 | 203.5 | 203.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.10 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 63 | 85 | 85.00 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.85 | Medium |
| Friday, May 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 11 | 7.5 | 11.55 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 75.7 | 75.8 | 75.95 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.75 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 0.76 | 0.4 | 0.90 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Low |
| Monday, May 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 34 | 31.50 | Medium | |