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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Consumption Expenditures held to 22,250.4 Billions USD in June 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Personal Consumption Expenditures held to 22,250.4 Billions USD in June 2026, released July 2026.
Latest Release
22250.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
22250.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures (United States) was reported at 22,250.40 Billions USD in June 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 21,763.66 Billions USD, ranging from 21,287.70 Billions USD to 22,250.40 Billions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 22,194.50 Billions USD, up from the prior three at 21,812.37 Billions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 339.62 Billions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 296.89 Billions USD). In July readings over the past 3 years, Personal Consumption Expenditures has averaged 21,069.07 Billions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Personal Consumption Expenditures - US
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About Personal Consumption Expenditures — United States
DEFINITION
US Personal Consumption Expenditures reached 22250.4 billion USD in July, up from June’s 22214.2 billion USD, marking a continued increase in consumer spending. July’s figure shows a modest rise compared to June, reflecting steady economic activity. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely amid this persistent consumption growth. Updated 8/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 22,250.4 Billions USD. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 22,214.2 Billions USD. Before that (May 2026): 22,118.9 Billions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |