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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Consumption Expenditures held to 21,860.5 Billions USD in February 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Personal Consumption Expenditures held to 21,860.5 Billions USD in February 2026, released March 2026.
Latest Release
21860.500000
Actual
—
Consensus
21860.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Consumption Expenditures (United States) was reported at 21,860.50 Billions USD in February 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 21,334.35 Billions USD, ranging from 20,868.40 Billions USD to 21,860.50 Billions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 21,679.13 Billions USD, up from the prior three at 21,368.07 Billions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 286.55 Billions USD) is comparable than the prior year (σ 302.15 Billions USD). In March readings over the past 3 years, Personal Consumption Expenditures has averaged 20,708.43 Billions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Personal Consumption Expenditures - US
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About Personal Consumption Expenditures — United States
DEFINITION
US Personal Consumption Expenditures rose to $21,536.6B in January, extending a ten-month growth streak and surpassing December’s $21,455.5B by $81.1B. This MoM increase continues the steady upward trend from November’s $21,361.0B, reflecting robust consumer demand above the 12-month average of $21,017.2B. US equity futures edged higher post-release, signaling market confidence in sustained economic expansion. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 21,860.5 Billions USD. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 21,665.1 Billions USD. Before that (Jan 2026): 21,511.8 Billions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.