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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Spending MoM climbed to 0.9% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Personal Spending MoM climbed to 0.9% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.8% from July's 0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.37%. Over the past 3 months, Personal Spending MoM averaged 0.25%, vs 0.38% in the prior 3-month window. Personal Spending MoM is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.83
Actual: 0.9
Error: -0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Spending MoM (United States) was reported at 0.9% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.41%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.9% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.27%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Personal Spending MoM has averaged 0.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct 26) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Personal Spending MoM - US
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About Personal Spending MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Personal Spending MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending on goods and services on a monthly basis. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy and consumer confidence, as well as potential future trends. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact various sectors of the economy, such as retail, housing, and manufacturing. A positive change in Personal Spending MoM indicates a healthy economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 57.6 | 58.4 | 57.6 | 57.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 56 | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.75 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 57.9 | 58.8 | 58 | 57.95 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48 | 48.1 | 46.3 | 47.15 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 46.7 | 50.9 | 44.7 | 45.70 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 48.8 | 46.3 | 47.3 | 48.05 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 7 | 8.15 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.85 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.50 | High | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.75 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 444.4 | 444.90 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -3 | -5.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -2 | -2.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | -7 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.684 | 0.66 | 0.66 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 80.5 | 79.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 6.4 | -3.5 | -3.50 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -0.9 | -2 | -1.25 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -1.8 | -3 | -0.70 | Low | |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.57 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -132.1 | -128.7 | -129.30 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |