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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales MoM climbed to 1.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Retail Sales MoM climbed to 1.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.7% from July's -0.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.45%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -0.2%, vs 0.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
0.8
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.63
Actual: 1.2
Error: -0.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (United States) was reported at 1.2% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.38%, ranging from -0.6% to 1.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, down from the prior three at 0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.4%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - US
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About Retail Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 1.2 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.95 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -1.12 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.84 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 40 | 49 | 48.00 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.4 | 76.40 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |