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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Sales MoM fell to 0.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Retail Sales MoM fell to 0.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.5% from August's 1.3% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.49%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.83% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 79th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
0.3
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.22
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (United States) was reported at 0.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.42%, ranging from -0.6% to 1.2% across 12 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, down from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.43%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - US
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About Retail Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 | 55.40 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77 | 77.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.13 | 7.11 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.95 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -108 | -108.15 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |