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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Goods Trade Balance Adv climbed to -82.4B in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Goods Trade Balance Adv climbed to -82.4B in April 2026, released May 2026, up 2.9B from March's -85.3B reading. The reading matched the -86.5B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -100.56B. Over the past 3 months, Goods Trade Balance Adv averaged -84.06B, vs -92.7B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-82.4
Actual
-86.5
Consensus
-85.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.27 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -86.25
Actual: -82.4
Error: -3.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Goods Trade Balance Adv (United States) was reported at -82.40 billion in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -86.50 billion by 4.10 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -85.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -88.40 billion, ranging from -103.60 billion to -80.80 billion across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -82.23 billion, up from the prior three at -90.30 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.64 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 29.46 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Goods Trade Balance Adv has averaged -89.81 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.27 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jul 21) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jul 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Goods Trade Balance Adv - US
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About Goods Trade Balance Adv — United States
DEFINITION
antages The Goods Trade Balance is a key financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods. This indicator provides valuable insights into a country's trade performance and can help identify areas of strength and weakness in its economy. By monitoring the Goods Trade Balance, businesses and investors can make informed decisions about international trade opportunities and potential risks. Additionally, policymakers can use this indicator to assess the effectiveness of trade policies and make adjustments to improve the country's trade balance. Overall, the Goods Trade Balance is a crucial tool for understanding a country's trade dynamics and can provide numerous advantages for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -82.4 B, consensus -86.5 B. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -87.87 B. Before that (Feb 2026): -84.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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