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US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM climbed to 0.8% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.3% from April's 0.5% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
across last 12 releases
Jun 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (United States) was reported at 0.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.4%, ranging from 0% to 0.8% across 9 releases.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.63%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM has averaged 0.3%.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Producer Price Index Excluding Food, Energy and Trade Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, excluding the volatile food, energy, and trade sectors, on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary pressures in the economy, as well as the pricing power of producers. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to track the health of the economy and make informed decisions.
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Building Permits MoM | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Building Permits | 1.423 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 6 | 6.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | -2 | -2.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.44 | 1.44 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 11.9 | 11.90 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Medium | ||
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.45 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | ||
| 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | ||