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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM fell to 0.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM fell to 0.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.1% from July's 0.4% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
0.300000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
0.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.45
Actual: 0.3
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.3% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.43%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.5%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In September readings over the past 3 years, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM - US
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About PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM — United States
DEFINITION
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Producer Price Index Excluding Food, Energy and Trade Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, excluding the volatile food, energy, and trade sectors, on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary pressures in the economy, as well as the pricing power of producers. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to track the health of the economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |