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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM climbed to 0.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM climbed to 0.8% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.3% from April's 0.5% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
0.800000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
0.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.43
Actual: 0.8
Error: -0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (United States) was reported at 0.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.45%, ranging from 0.1% to 0.8% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.63%, up from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM - US
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About PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM — United States
DEFINITION
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM (Producer Price Index Excluding Food, Energy and Trade Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services, excluding the volatile food, energy, and trade sectors, on a monthly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall inflationary pressures in the economy, as well as the pricing power of producers. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to track the health of the economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |