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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY climbed to 5.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY climbed to 5.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.7% from April's 4.4% reading. The print came in hotter than the 4.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
5.100000
Actual
4.400000
Consensus
4.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.63
Actual: 5.1
Error: -0.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (United States) was reported at 5.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.4% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.53%, ranging from 2.8% to 5.1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.33%, up from the prior three at 3.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.72%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In June readings over the past 3 years, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY has averaged 3.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Aug 12) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY - US
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About PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY — United States
DEFINITION
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for goods and services, excluding the volatile categories of food, energy, and trade. This indicator provides insight into the overall trend of inflation in the economy, as it excludes the impact of these highly fluctuating sectors. It is often used by economists and investors to assess the underlying inflationary pressures in the market and make informed decisions about pricing and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.1 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 97.4 | 97.5 | 98.03 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -1.20 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 4.13 | 4.05 | 4.05 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 9.072 | 2.69 | -0.5 | 1.76 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 2.479 | -0.5 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -1.643 | -1.58 | -2.20 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -3.473 | -1.6 | -0.09 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -346 | -348.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -361.2 | -332.30 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1800 | 1800.00 | Low | |