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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY held to 4.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY held to 4.7% in August 2026, released September 2026. The print came in hotter than the 4.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
4.700000
Actual
4.400000
Consensus
4.700000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 4.2
Actual: 4.7
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY (United States) was reported at 4.7% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.4% by 0.3%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.96%, ranging from 2.9% to 5.1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.83%, up from the prior three at 3.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.73%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In September readings over the past 3 years, PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY has averaged 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY - US
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About PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY — United States
DEFINITION
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for goods and services, excluding the volatile categories of food, energy, and trade. This indicator provides insight into the overall trend of inflation in the economy, as it excludes the impact of these highly fluctuating sectors. It is often used by economists and investors to assess the underlying inflationary pressures in the market and make informed decisions about pricing and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.7 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.7 %. Before that (May 2026): 5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |