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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Import Prices MoM fell to 0.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Import Prices MoM fell to 0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.4% from May's 1.7% reading. The print exceeded the -0.7% consensus by 1.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.62%. Over the past 3 months, Import Prices MoM averaged 1.9%, vs 0.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
-0.7
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.25
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Import Prices MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.7% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.68%, ranging from 0% to 1.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.37%, up from the prior three at 0.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.23%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Import Prices MoM has averaged 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Import Prices MoM - US
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About Import Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Import Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services imported into a country on a monthly basis. It provides valuable insights into the cost of foreign goods and the impact of international trade on a country's economy. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can reflect changes in inflation, exchange rates, and global economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus -0.7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |