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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Import Prices MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Import Prices MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.1% from June's -0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.5%. Import Prices MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Import Prices MoM averaged 1.1%, vs 1.05% in the prior 3-month window. Import Prices MoM is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.1
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.58
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Import Prices MoM (United States) was reported at -0.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.6%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, down from the prior three at 1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.77%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.22%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Import Prices MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Import Prices MoM - US
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About Import Prices MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Import Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services imported into a country on a monthly basis. It provides valuable insights into the cost of foreign goods and the impact of international trade on a country's economy. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can reflect changes in inflation, exchange rates, and global economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |