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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Current Account fell to -246B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Current Account fell to -246B in April 2026, released September 2026, down 33.4B from March's -212.6B reading. The reading matched the -255B consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 5.3B. Current Account is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-246
Actual
-255
Consensus
-212.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±30.68 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -255
Actual: -246
Error: -9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (United States) was reported at -246.00 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -255.00 billion by 9.00 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -212.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -221.03 billion, up from the prior three at -335.13 billion. In September readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -391.28 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 30.68 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Inventories MoM (Oct 15) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Current Account - US
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About Current Account — United States
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -246 M, consensus -255 M. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -190.7 M. Before that (Jul 2025): -226.4 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 336.3 | 334.13 | 335.8 | 336.05 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 336.94 | 334.98 | 336.65 | 336.79 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.1 | -2.09 | 1.9 | -4.60 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.1 | -2.09 | 1.9 | -4.60 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 33.63 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 198.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.42 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.57 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.47 | High |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.382 | -0.5 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.186 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.042 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |