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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Current Account climbed to -190.7B in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Current Account climbed to -190.7B in October 2025, released March 2026, up 48.4B from September's -239.1B reading. The print exceeded the -211B consensus by 20.3B. Current Account has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Current Account is now the highest in 51 months.
Latest Release
-190.7
Actual
-211
Consensus
-239.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±63.07 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -205
Actual: -190.7
Error: -14.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (United States) was reported at -190.70 billion in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of -211.00 billion by 20.30 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -239.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -222.80 billion, down from the prior three at -191.13 billion. In March readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -229.80 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 63.07 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug 24) and Fed Barkin Speech (Aug 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Current Account - US
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About Current Account — United States
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual -190.7 M, consensus -211 M. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -226.4 M. Before that (Apr 2025): -251.3 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.02 | 0.1 | 0.32 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.60 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 1.6 | -1.3 | -1.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -3 | -1 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 8 | 7 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 90.3 | 90.90 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 0.5 | 0.7 | -2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 209 | 211.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1811 | 1814.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -99.9 | -99.90 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |