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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2025
US Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025, released September 2025, down 19.2B from June's -59.1B reading. The reading matched the -77.7B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -106.6B.
Latest Release
-78.3
Actual
-77.7
Consensus
-59.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4,860.64 billion
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Sep 2025
Predicted: 981.22
Actual: -78.3
Error: +1,059.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (United States) was reported at -78.30 billion in September 2025. This missed the market consensus of -77.70 billion by 0.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -59.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -62,104.20 Millions USD, ranging from -88,576.00 Millions USD to -31,102.00 Millions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -79,135.00 Millions USD, down from the prior three at -56,310.67 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 15,167.35 Millions USD) is lower than the prior year (σ 46,470.42 Millions USD). In July readings over the past 3 years, Trade Balance (Goods & Services) has averaged -80,482.67 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4,860.64 Millions USD.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Trade Balance - US
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About Trade Balance — United States
DEFINITION
The US Trade Balance (Goods & Services) for May registered at -77585 million USD, widening sharply from April's -54570 million USD. This marks a significant deterioration in the trade deficit compared to the prior month. The larger deficit may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy discussions. Updated 7/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -88,576 Millions USD. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -71,182 Millions USD. Before that (May 2026): -77,647 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |