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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2025
US Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025, released September 2025, down 19.2B from June's -59.1B reading. The reading matched the -77.7B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -106.6B.
Latest Release
-78.3
Actual
-77.7
Consensus
-59.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4,860.64 billion
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Sep 2025
Predicted: 981.22
Actual: -78.3
Error: +1,059.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (United States) was reported at -78.30 billion in September 2025. This missed the market consensus of -77.70 billion by 0.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -59.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -47,211.63 Millions USD, ranging from -77,585.00 Millions USD to -60.20 Millions USD across 12 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -62,913.33 Millions USD, down from the prior three at -61,784.67 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 23,726.00 Millions USD) is lower than the prior year (σ 46,156.66 Millions USD). In May readings over the past 3 years, Trade Balance (Goods & Services) has averaged -55,686.38 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4,860.64 Millions USD.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include API Crude Oil Stock Change (Jul 21) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jul 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Trade Balance - US
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About Trade Balance — United States
DEFINITION
The US Trade Balance (Goods & Services) for May registered at -77585 million USD, widening sharply from April's -54570 million USD. This marks a significant deterioration in the trade deficit compared to the prior month. The larger deficit may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve policy discussions. Updated 7/8/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -77,585 Millions USD. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -54,570 Millions USD. Before that (Mar 2026): -56,585 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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