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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2025
US Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025, released September 2025, down 19.2B from June's -59.1B reading. The reading matched the -77.7B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -106.6B.
Latest Release
-78.3
Actual
-77.7
Consensus
-59.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4,860.64 billion
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Sep 2025
Predicted: 981.22
Actual: -78.3
Error: +1,059.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (United States) was reported at -78.30 billion in September 2025. This missed the market consensus of -77.70 billion by 0.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -59.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -43,849.08 Millions USD, ranging from -74,233.00 Millions USD to -60.20 Millions USD across 13 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -57,587.00 Millions USD, down from the prior three at -53,342.67 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 25,983.72 Millions USD) is lower than the prior year (σ 45,361.49 Millions USD). In March readings over the past 3 years, Trade Balance (Goods & Services) has averaged -65,640.10 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4,860.64 Millions USD.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Waller Speech (May 31) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Trade Balance - US
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About Trade Balance — United States
DEFINITION
The US Trade Balance (Goods & Services) deficit widened to -57347.000000 million USD in January 2026, up from -54677.000000 million USD in December 2025. This increase reflects stronger goods imports outpacing exports, pushing the deficit above the prior month’s level and maintaining pressure on external accounts. Market reaction was muted, with the US dollar holding steady amid ongoing volatility in trade flows. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -60,307 Millions USD. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -57,777 Millions USD. Before that (Jan 2026): -54,677 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.