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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Advance Retail Sales held to 763,602 Millions USD in June 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Advance Retail Sales held to 763,602 Millions USD in June 2026, released July 2026.
Latest Release
763602.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
763602.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Advance Retail Sales (United States) was reported at 763,602.00 Millions USD in June 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 748,316.90 Millions USD, ranging from 731,051.00 Millions USD to 768,072.00 Millions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 766,183.33 Millions USD, up from the prior three at 750,059.33 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 14,202.72 Millions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 7,802.46 Millions USD). In July readings over the past 3 years, Advance Retail Sales has averaged 730,054.67 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Advance Retail Sales - US
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About Advance Retail Sales — United States
DEFINITION
US Advance Retail Sales for July registered at 763602.000000 million USD, missing June’s 768072.000000 million USD. July’s figure declined from June’s level, indicating a slight contraction in retail activity month-over-month. Market focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve signals. Updated 8/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 763,602 Millions USD. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 768,072 Millions USD. Before that (May 2026): 766,876 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |