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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2025
US Trade Balance fell to -78.3B in July 2025, released September 2025, down 19.2B from June's -59.1B reading. The reading matched the -77.7B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -106.6B.
Latest Release
-78.3
Actual
-77.7
Consensus
-59.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4,860.64 billion
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Sep 2025
Predicted: 981.22
Actual: -78.3
Error: +1,059.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (United States) was reported at -78.30 billion in September 2025. This missed the market consensus of -77.70 billion by 0.60 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -59.10 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -69,976.20 Millions USD, ranging from -105,572.00 Millions USD to -54,570.00 Millions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -89,860.00 Millions USD, down from the prior three at -62,934.00 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 16,888.42 Millions USD) is lower than the prior year (σ 46,303.50 Millions USD). In August readings over the past 3 years, Trade Balance (Goods & Services) has averaged -58,214.30 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4,860.64 Millions USD.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Trade Balance - US
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About Trade Balance — United States
DEFINITION
US Trade Balance (Goods & Services) for August showed a deficit of -105572 million USD, widening from July's -92826 million USD. The trade gap expanded by 12,746 million USD month-over-month, indicating increased import dominance. Market focus will remain on upcoming trade data and Federal Reserve policy amid persistent external imbalances. Updated 10/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -105,572 Millions USD. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -92,826 Millions USD. Before that (Jun 2026): -71,182 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.53) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.6 | 55.40 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77 | 77.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |