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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW fell to -0.1% in October 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased October 2026
US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW fell to -0.1% in October 2026, down 0.9% from September's 0.8% reading.
Latest Release
-0.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.800000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW (United States) was reported at -0.1% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from -2.8% to 3.4% across 42 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at -1.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.38%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.56%). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW has averaged -0.69%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW - US
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About EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates WoW — United States
DEFINITION
US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates fell by -0.100000% in the week ending October 21, 2026, reversing last week’s 0.800000% increase. This decline follows a volatile trend with prior weeks showing mixed gains and losses, including a -1.5% drop on September 30. Market participants will watch upcoming energy data for further clarity on refinery activity amid fluctuating demand. Updated 10/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -0.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Oct 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.952 | 3.518 | -0.4 | -1.68 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.061 | -8.557 | -0.8 | -1.93 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.675 | -2.527 | -1.2 | 0.24 | Low |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.06 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1718.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 192.25 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 77.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |