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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash fell to 51.2 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash fell to 51.2 in January 2026, released February 2026, down 1.2 from December's 52.4 reading. The reading matched the 51.8 consensus.
Latest Release
51.200000
Actual
51.800000
Consensus
52.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 51.7
Actual: 51.2
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (United States) was reported at 51.20 in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of 51.80 by 0.60. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.40. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash - US
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — United States
DEFINITION
The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for January registered 51.2, missing the 51.8 consensus and down from December’s 52.4. This marks the lowest reading since September 2025, indicating a slowdown in factory growth though expansion continues above the 50 threshold. Equities remained steady and the dollar firmed slightly as markets priced in a stable but cooling manufacturing sector. Updated 2/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 51.2, consensus 51.8. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 51.8. Before that (Nov 2025): 51.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.952 | 3.518 | -0.4 | -1.68 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.061 | -8.557 | -0.8 | -1.93 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.675 | -2.527 | -1.2 | 0.24 | Low |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.06 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1718.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 192.25 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 77.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |