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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 13 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 13 in May 2026, up 10 from April's 3 reading. The print exceeded the 4 consensus by 9. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 1.5, vs -7.67 in the prior 3-month window. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
13
Actual
4
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 6.5
Actual: 13
Error: -6.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 13.00 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.00 by 9.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -7.27, ranging from -20.00 to 13.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.00, up from the prior three at -9.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.53) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.15). In May readings over the past 3 years, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 1.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the states of Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, and parts of West Virginia. This index is based on a survey of manufacturing executives and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of the regional manufacturing industry. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 13, consensus 4. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.