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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 4 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 4 in August 2026, down 1 from July's 5 reading. The reading missed the 7 consensus by 3. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -3.42. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 4.5, vs 5.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4
Actual
7
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.83
Actual: 4
Error: +2.83
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 4.00 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.00 by 3.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -3.00, ranging from -17.00 to 13.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.33, up from the prior three at 1.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.75) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.12). In August readings over the past 3 years, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged -7.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the states of Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, and parts of West Virginia. This index is based on a survey of manufacturing executives and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of the regional manufacturing industry. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4, consensus 7. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5. Before that (Jun 2026): 4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |