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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 5 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 5 in July 2026, up 1 from June's 4 reading. The reading missed the 10 consensus by 5. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -5.5. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 8.5, vs -2.33 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5
Actual
10
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 11
Actual: 5
Error: +6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 5.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 10.00 by 5.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.00, ranging from -17.00 to 13.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.33, up from the prior three at -5.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.52) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.50). In July readings over the past 3 years, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged -10.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes the states of Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, and parts of West Virginia. This index is based on a survey of manufacturing executives and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of the regional manufacturing industry. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5, consensus 10. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4. Before that (May 2026): 13.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |