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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Gasoline Production Change fell to -0.51M in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US EIA Gasoline Production Change fell to -0.51M in October 2026, down 1.03M from September's 0.52M reading.
Latest Release
-0.509000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.518000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Gasoline Production Change (United States) was reported at -0.51 million in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.52 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.01 million, ranging from -0.66 million to 0.79 million across 41 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.04 million, up from the prior three at -0.10 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.35 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.40 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Gasoline Production Change has averaged -0.03 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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EIA Gasoline Production Change - US
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About EIA Gasoline Production Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Gasoline Production Change is a key financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the production of gasoline in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to track the health of the gasoline industry and its impact on the overall economy. It provides valuable insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the gasoline market and can help inform strategic decision-making in the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -0.509 M. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 0.518 M. Before that (Oct 2026): -0.117 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |