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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Industrial Production Index held to 102.99 in June 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Industrial Production Index held to 102.99 in June 2026, released July 2026.
Latest Release
102.993900
Actual
—
Consensus
102.993900
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production Index (United States) was reported at 102.99 Index 2017=100 in June 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 102.16 Index 2017=100, ranging from 101.21 Index 2017=100 to 102.99 Index 2017=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 102.78 Index 2017=100, up from the prior three at 102.22 Index 2017=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.58 Index 2017=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.82 Index 2017=100). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production Index has averaged 101.62 Index 2017=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production Index - US
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About Industrial Production Index — United States
DEFINITION
US Industrial Production Index rose to 102.993900 in July, up from June’s 102.786800, marking a steady increase. July’s reading continues the expansion trend following June’s gain, reflecting ongoing industrial growth. Market focus remains on upcoming manufacturing data and Federal Reserve policy signals. Updated 8/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 103 Index 2017=100. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 102.8 Index 2017=100. Before that (May 2026): 102.6 Index 2017=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |