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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity climbed to 57.7 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity climbed to 57.7 in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.8 from April's 55.9 reading.
Latest Release
57.700000
Actual
—
Consensus
55.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 51.8
Actual: 49.9
Error: +1.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (United States) was reported at 57.70 in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 55.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 55.26, ranging from 49.90 to 59.90 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 58.33, up from the prior three at 54.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.10.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity - US
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About ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity is a key economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the service-based industries, such as retail, healthcare, and finance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal changes in consumer spending, employment, and overall economic activity. A higher reading indicates a stronger business activity, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown in the non-manufacturing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 57.7. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 55.9. Before that (Mar 2026): 53.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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