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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity climbed to 59.9 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity climbed to 59.9 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 2.5 from January's 57.4 reading.
Latest Release
59.900000
Actual
—
Consensus
57.400000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 51.8
Actual: 49.9
Error: +1.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (United States) was reported at 55.90 in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.40, ranging from 49.90 to 59.90 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 57.77, up from the prior three at 52.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.10.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity - US
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About ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity is a key economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the service-based industries, such as retail, healthcare, and finance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal changes in consumer spending, employment, and overall economic activity. A higher reading indicates a stronger business activity, while a lower reading may suggest a slowdown in the non-manufacturing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 55.9. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 53.9. Before that (Feb 2026): 59.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.