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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed New Orders climbed to 16 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed New Orders climbed to 16 in August 2023, up 31.9 from July's -15.9 reading. The print exceeded the -13.5 consensus by 29.5. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -15.98. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed New Orders averaged -13.45, vs -19.93 in the prior 3-month window. Philly Fed New Orders is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
16
Actual
-13.5
Consensus
-15.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.3
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -13.78
Actual: 16
Error: -29.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed New Orders (United States) was reported at 30.10 in August 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 37.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.04, ranging from -8.60 to 37.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 31.47, up from the prior three at 6.20. Volatility over the past year (σ 13.00) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.55). In August readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed New Orders has averaged 14.27.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug 24) and Fed Barkin Speech (Aug 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Philly Fed New Orders - US
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About Philly Fed New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed New Orders is a leading economic indicator that measures the level of new orders received by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. It is released monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity in the region. This indicator is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal changes in consumer demand and future economic growth. A higher reading indicates increased new orders and potential economic expansion, while a lower reading suggests a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 30.1. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 37. Before that (Jun 2026): 27.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.53) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.02 | 0.1 | 0.32 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.60 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.628 | 0.62 | 0.62 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -3 | -1 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 8 | 7 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 90.3 | 90.90 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 0.5 | 0.7 | -2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 209 | 211.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1811 | 1814.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -99.9 | -99.90 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |