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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed New Orders climbed to 16 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed New Orders climbed to 16 in August 2023, up 31.9 from July's -15.9 reading. The print exceeded the -13.5 consensus by 29.5. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -15.98. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed New Orders averaged -13.45, vs -19.93 in the prior 3-month window. Philly Fed New Orders is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
16
Actual
-13.5
Consensus
-15.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.3
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -13.78
Actual: 16
Error: -29.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed New Orders (United States) was reported at 4.30 in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 29.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.30, ranging from -8.60 to 37.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 21.20, up from the prior three at 20.87. Volatility over the past year (σ 14.02) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.57). In October readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed New Orders has averaged 12.23.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Philly Fed New Orders - US
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About Philly Fed New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed New Orders is a leading economic indicator that measures the level of new orders received by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. It is released monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity in the region. This indicator is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal changes in consumer demand and future economic growth. A higher reading indicates increased new orders and potential economic expansion, while a lower reading suggests a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.3. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 29.2. Before that (Aug 2026): 30.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.952 | 3.518 | -0.4 | -1.68 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.061 | -8.557 | -0.8 | -1.93 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.675 | -2.527 | -1.2 | 0.24 | Low |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.06 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1718.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 192.25 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 77.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |