Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Philly Fed New Orders climbed to 16 in August 2023
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2023
US Philly Fed New Orders climbed to 16 in August 2023, up 31.9 from July's -15.9 reading. The print exceeded the -13.5 consensus by 29.5. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -15.98. Over the past 3 months, Philly Fed New Orders averaged -13.45, vs -19.93 in the prior 3-month window. Philly Fed New Orders is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
16
Actual
-13.5
Consensus
-15.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.3
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2023
Predicted: -13.78
Actual: 16
Error: -29.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Philly Fed New Orders (United States) was reported at 27.30 in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.44, ranging from -8.60 to 27.30 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.40, up from the prior three at 10.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.06) is lower than the prior year (σ 17.58). In June readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed New Orders has averaged 9.13.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25) and Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Philly Fed New Orders - US
Loading chart data...
About Philly Fed New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
Philly Fed New Orders is a leading economic indicator that measures the level of new orders received by manufacturers in the Philadelphia region. It is released monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and provides valuable insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity in the region. This indicator is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can signal changes in consumer demand and future economic growth. A higher reading indicates increased new orders and potential economic expansion, while a lower reading suggests a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 27.3. Prior reading (May 2026): -1.7. Before that (Apr 2026): 33.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.58) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |