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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.8 Points in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.8 Points in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1 Points from May's 53.9 Points reading. The reading matched the 54.3 Points consensus.
Latest Release
53.800000
Actual
54.300000
Consensus
53.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.56
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 54.67
Actual: 53.8
Error: +0.87
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 53.80 Points in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 54.30 Points by 0.50 Points. The reading fell from the previous value of 53.90 Points. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.62 Points, ranging from 49.80 Points to 55.70 Points across 20 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.87 Points, up from the prior three at 53.33 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.40 Points) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.78 Points). In July readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has averaged 51.10 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.56 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - US
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 53.8 Points, consensus 54.3 Points. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 55.7 Points. Before that (May 2026): 55.1 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |