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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P Global Manufacturing PMI held to 53.9 Points in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI held to 53.9 Points in August 2026, released September 2026. The reading matched the 53.2 Points consensus.
Latest Release
53.900000
Actual
53.200000
Consensus
53.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 53.18
Actual: 53.9
Error: -0.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 53.90 Points in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 53.20 Points by 0.70 Points. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.86 Points, ranging from 51.20 Points to 55.70 Points across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 53.67 Points, down from the prior three at 54.87 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28 Points) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.89 Points). In September readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.45 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.71 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - US
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 53.9 Points, consensus 53.2 Points. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 53.2 Points. Before that (Jul 2026): 53.9 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |