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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56 Points in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1 Points from August's 55.9 Points reading. The reading matched the 55.5 Points consensus.
Latest Release
56.000000
Actual
55.500000
Consensus
55.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.73
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 55.74
Actual: 56
Error: -0.26
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 56.00 Points in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 55.50 Points by 0.50 Points. The reading rose from the previous value of 55.90 Points. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.50 Points, ranging from 51.20 Points to 57.00 Points across 20 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 56.30 Points, up from the prior three at 53.67 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.72 Points) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.31 Points). In October readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has averaged 51.87 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - US
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 56 Points, consensus 55.5 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 55.9 Points. Before that (Sep 2026): 57 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |