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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.9 Points in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.9 Points in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2 Points from August's 53.9 Points reading. The reading matched the 57 Points consensus.
Latest Release
55.900000
Actual
57.000000
Consensus
53.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.73
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 57.3
Actual: 55.9
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 55.90 Points in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 57.00 Points by 1.10 Points. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.90 Points. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.31 Points, ranging from 51.20 Points to 57.00 Points across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 55.60 Points, up from the prior three at 53.63 Points. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.64 Points) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.51 Points). In October readings over the past 3 years, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.87 Points.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.73 Points.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Hammack Speech (Oct 12) and Budget Balance (Oct 12).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - US
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About S&P Global Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in major economies around the world. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the global manufacturing industry, serving as a key barometer for investors, businesses, and policymakers. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and its timely and accurate data is highly regarded for its ability to forecast economic trends and inform decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 55.9 Points, consensus 57 Points. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 57 Points. Before that (Aug 2026): 53.9 Points.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 46.3 | 48.1 | 47.6 | 46.95 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 47.3 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 46.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 44.7 | 50.9 | 50.5 | 47.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 98.7 | 98 | 98.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.98 | 3.97 | 3.97 | High | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | 210 | 217.90 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 334.131 | 335.8 | 335.08 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 334.98 | 336.8 | 336.43 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 334.98 | 336.5 | 336.50 | High | |