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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.6 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.6 in July 2026, released August 2026, up 2.3 from June's 53.3 reading. The reading matched the 54 consensus. ISM Manufacturing PMI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. ISM Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
55.6
Actual
54
Consensus
53.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 54.5
Actual: 55.6
Error: -1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Manufacturing PMI (United States) was reported at 55.60 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 54.00 by 1.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 53.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.99, ranging from 47.90 to 55.60 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 54.10, up from the prior three at 50.97. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.63) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.26). In August readings over the past 3 years, ISM Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.13.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.70.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (Aug 7) and CFTC Gold Speculative net positions (Aug 7).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI - US
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About ISM Manufacturing PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the level of activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the current state of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can provide early indications of changes in economic trends and potential shifts in market conditions. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. Overall, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key tool for assessing the health and performance of the manufacturing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 55.6, consensus 54. Prior reading (May 2026): 54. Before that (Apr 2026): 52.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 33.429 | 45.849 | 59 | 46.21 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 202 | 200.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 203.25 | 198 | 198.38 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1777 | 1790 | 1795.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 33 | 28 | 31 | 32.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.88 | Medium |
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.4 | 61.5 | 61.6 | 61.58 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.95 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | -23 | 20 | 80 | 67.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.17 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.32 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 5 | 11 | 4 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | -53 | -10 | 10 | -4.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.23 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 30 | 30 | 78 | 78.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 454 | 451 | 452 | 452.75 | Low |