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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM fell to 0.6% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM fell to 0.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.2% from May's 1.8% reading. The reading missed the 0.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.73%. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM averaged 1.1%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 64th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.13
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (United States) was reported at 0.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.62%, ranging from 0.1% to 1.3% across 17 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1%, up from the prior three at 0.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has averaged 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods, excluding transportation equipment. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as durable goods are typically expensive and have a long lifespan. By excluding transportation equipment, which can be volatile, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of economic growth and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |