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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM fell to 0.4% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM fell to 0.4% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.7% from June's 1.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.6% consensus by 0.2%. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM averaged 0.95%, vs 0.72% in the prior 3-month window. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.6
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.78
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.38
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (United States) was reported at 0.4% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.57%, ranging from 0.1% to 1.3% across 15 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.32%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM has averaged 0.38%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FOMC Economic Projections (Sep 16) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods, excluding transportation equipment. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as durable goods are typically expensive and have a long lifespan. By excluding transportation equipment, which can be volatile, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as a key indicator of economic growth and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.57) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |