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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders MoM climbed to 7.9% in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Durable Goods Orders MoM climbed to 7.9% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 6.6% from March's 1.3% reading. The print exceeded the 3.5% consensus by 4.4%. Durable Goods Orders MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders MoM averaged -0.2%, vs 0.57% in the prior 3-month window. Durable Goods Orders MoM is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
7.9
Actual
3.5
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.86 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 7.9
Error: -5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders MoM (United States) was reported at 7.9% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.5% by 4.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.73%, ranging from -9.3% to 16.4% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.17%, up from the prior three at 1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.63%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.83%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders MoM has averaged 0.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.86%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods in a given month. This includes products such as appliances, machinery, and vehicles, which are expected to last for at least three years. As a leading indicator of economic activity, Durable Goods Orders MoM provides valuable insights into consumer and business spending patterns, and can impact financial markets and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 7.9 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.