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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 432,375 Thousand Barrels/Day in June 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 432,375 Thousand Barrels/Day in June 2026, released July 2026, up 418,427 Thousand Barrels/Day from May's 13,948 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
432375.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13948.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 432,375.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,948.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 60,226.44 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 432,375.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 153,324.67 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,794.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 131,574.52 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 222.88 Thousand Barrels/Day). In July readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 153,098.00 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
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About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) for May registered at 13714.000000 K bbl/d, down from April’s 13967 K bbl/d, marking a contraction in output. This decline follows a peak in April and signals a pullback after several months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and OPEC decisions for further supply cues. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 432,375 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 13,844 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (May 2026): 13,755 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.77) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |