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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026, released June 2026, up 399,966 Thousand Barrels/Day from April's 13,792 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
413758.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13792.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,792.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 58,160.11 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 147,160.00 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,550.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 125,722.98 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 199.45 Thousand Barrels/Day). In June readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 146,873.33 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
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About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) for May registered at 13714.000000 K bbl/d, down from April’s 13967 K bbl/d, marking a contraction in output. This decline follows a peak in April and signals a pullback after several months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and OPEC decisions for further supply cues. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (May 2026): 13,755 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Apr 2026): 13,967 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |