Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 424,566 Thousand Barrels/Day in February 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 424,566 Thousand Barrels/Day in February 2026, released March 2026, up 410,870 Thousand Barrels/Day from January's 13,696 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
424566.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13696.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 424,566.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in February 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,696.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 59,350.44 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 424,566.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 150,500.00 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,769.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 129,123.32 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 143.18 Thousand Barrels/Day). In March readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 150,403.00 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
SHARE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
Loading chart data...
About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) surged to 410,638 K bbl/d in January 2026, a massive revision from December’s 13,656 K bbl/d. This 396,982 K bbl/d increase breaks the steady trend seen throughout 2025 and resets the baseline for US output. Energy markets reacted sharply, with volatility persisting as traders await further data clarifications. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 424,566 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 13,697 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Jan 2026): 13,237 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.63) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.