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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 418,015 Thousand Barrels/Day in March 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 418,015 Thousand Barrels/Day in March 2026, released April 2026, up 404,081 Thousand Barrels/Day from February's 13,934 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
418015.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13934.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.90 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.88 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 418,015.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,934.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 64,225.50 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 418,015.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 148,476.67 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,560.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 133,719.99 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 193.44 Thousand Barrels/Day). In April readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 148,265.00 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Aug 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
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About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) surged to 410,638 K bbl/d in January 2026, a massive revision from December’s 13,656 K bbl/d. This 396,982 K bbl/d increase breaks the steady trend seen throughout 2025 and resets the baseline for US output. Energy markets reacted sharply, with volatility persisting as traders await further data clarifications. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 418,015 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 13,718 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Feb 2026): 13,697 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.90) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |